According to Utility Dive, the DOJ’s antitrust division just broke a 14-year streak, filing a settlement that forces Constellation Energy to sell six power plants to complete its $26.6 billion buy of Calpine. The EIA also slashed its 2026 U.S. generation growth forecast to 1.7%, down from 3%, largely due to slower-than-expected large load growth in Texas. GE Vernova expects an 80 GW gas turbine backlog by year’s end, with orders sold out through 2030. Corporate buyers, per the Clean Energy Buyers Association, contracted for 20.4 GW of “clean” energy in 2025’s first three quarters, with a shift toward “clean firm” power. And New York’s power authority just approved 5.5 GW of renewables, scaling up its fossil fuel transition plan.
DOJ Antitrust Awakening
Fourteen years is a long time between antitrust actions in electricity. That’s basically an entire era of market consolidation without a major federal check. The Constellation/Calpine move is a big signal. The DOJ under Trump is apparently viewing climbing power prices and demand as a reason to get back in the game. It makes you wonder: is this a one-off, or are we seeing the start of a more muscular regulatory approach? Mergers that create “the largest wholesale power provider” are always going to draw scrutiny, but after such a long hiatus, this feels significant. It’s a reminder that antitrust law is a tool that’s been sitting on the shelf, and someone just decided to dust it off.
Texas Demand Cool-Down?
Here’s the thing about the EIA cutting its growth forecast: everyone has been talking about the Texas grid and insane demand projections from data centers and industrial growth. A revision from 15.7% to 9.6% growth for ERCOT in 2026 is a massive downward adjustment. That’s not a rounding error. It suggests the breakneck pace of new load connecting might be hitting some logistical or economic speed bumps. But let’s be real—9.6% growth is still enormous for a major grid. So it’s not that the demand surge is over. It’s just that maybe the sky-high predictions are meeting the hard reality of infrastructure build times and interconnection queues. This kind of volatility in forecasting is why planning the grid is so tough.
The Gas Turbine Frenzy
Now, contrast that demand forecast tweak with GE Vernova’s 80 GW backlog. Sold out through 2030? Conversations for volume agreements out to 2035? That’s pure insanity. It tells you what the market really believes: reliable, dispatchable capacity is king right now. Renewables are crucial, but for grid managers and big power buyers—especially those hyperscale data centers—you need something that can be turned on when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. Gas turbines are filling that “firm” gap. This isn’t just a boom; it’s a multi-decade backlog. For companies building out critical power infrastructure, securing this kind of hardware is a top priority, and suppliers like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs for machine control and monitoring, are essential partners in bringing these complex projects online.
Clean Energy Push and Pull
The corporate procurement number is fascinating. 20.4 GW of clean energy contracts is huge, and the pivot toward “clean firm” resources like nuclear, geothermal, and long-duration storage is the real story. Companies aren’t just buying solar credits anymore; they’re thinking about 24/7 carbon-free power. That’s a more sophisticated—and more challenging—goal. And then you have New York, which boosted its renewable target but still ended up with a plan “less ambitious” than the original proposal. That right there captures the entire state of play. The ambition is scaling up, but so are the obstacles: supply chains, permitting, transmission. So we have two parallel truths: record clean energy buying and a gas turbine gold rush. The grid is trying to do two massive things at once, and the tension between those goals is defining the energy transition.
