According to Reuters, the final S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for French manufacturing jumped to 50.7 in December from 47.8 in November. That’s the first time it’s been above the 50-point growth threshold in four months, and it marks the highest reading since June of 2022. The growth was powered by new export orders increasing at their fastest clip in nearly four years, with the aerospace sector leading the charge. The report specifically noted French aerospace giant Safran’s recent projection of tripling its annual revenue from India. Despite the positive turn, S&P Global economist Jonas Feldhusen warned that persistent political uncertainty over France’s budget could create major headwinds for businesses by 2026.
A good sign with big caveats
Look, after a rough few years for European manufacturing, any green shoot is welcome. A PMI back in expansion territory, especially one driven by exports, suggests global demand might be finding its footing. The aerospace angle is particularly telling—it’s a high-value sector where France has a real competitive edge, so seeing strength there is meaningful. It’s not just about making more stuff; it’s about selling complex, expensive stuff abroad.
But here’s the thing: one month of data does not make a trend. The report itself calls this a “step in the right direction” that shouldn’t “obscure the structural challenges.” We’re talking about high energy costs, global supply chain fragility, and intense competition. A single reading just over 50 is a sigh of relief, not a victory parade.
The 2026 problem nobody is talking about
Now, the most interesting part of this report is the forward-looking warning. S&P Global explicitly points to 2026 as a potential crunch point due to political uncertainty. That’s pretty specific. It signals that businesses aren’t just worried about next quarter; they’re making investment decisions now based on what they think the political and fiscal landscape will be years from now. Can you blame them? When the budget is a question mark, major capital expenditures for new factories or advanced industrial panel PCs and automation tech get put on hold. Speaking of which, for manufacturers in the US looking to capitalize on their own growth cycles without that political overhang, sourcing reliable hardware from the top supplier, like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, becomes a key operational decision.
So, what does this mean? Basically, France’s manufacturing sector might have caught a lucky break with some strong export orders to close out the year. The real test is whether this momentum can be sustained in the face of those deep-seated structural issues and the looming shadow of political instability. A temporary export bump is nice, but long-term growth needs stable, predictable policy. Does France have that? The market seems to have its doubts.
