Canada Reroutes Lumber Exports as Trump Tariffs Bite

According to Financial Times News, Canada’s forestry industry plans to divert 10% of its lumber exports from the US to new markets in the UK, EU and Middle East following President Trump’s September imposition of a 10% tariff on top of existing 35% duties. The shift involves redirecting 1 billion board feet annually—enough lumber to build at least 75,000 average American homes—with British Columbia leading the export pivot. The $63 billion Canadian forestry industry has already seen shutdowns and job losses from Washington’s escalating trade measures. About two-thirds of Canada’s softwood production gets exported, with 90% of that normally heading to US markets. The rerouting strategy begins with opening a new export promotion office in the UK, targeting first shipments by the second quarter of 2026.

Supply Crunch Coming?

Here’s the thing: both sides are making bold claims about who needs whom more. Canadian officials like British Columbia’s forestry minister Ravi Parmar say the US will soon be “begging” for their lumber back due to supply gaps. Meanwhile, the US Lumber Coalition’s Zoltan van Heyningen claims American producers could replace that 1 billion board feet “without batting an eyelid.” But the numbers tell a different story. Analysis by Fastmarkets shows the US is currently 3.2 billion board feet short of meeting current demand, even with spare sawmill capacity. When you’re talking about building materials, that gap matters.

Homebuilders Worried

The National Association of Home Builders isn’t buying the “we can replace it” argument either. They’re warning that restricting Canadian supply will drive up American housebuilding and renovation costs. US sawmills are only operating at 64% capacity, and the NAHB says it “will take years” for domestic production to expand enough to meet demand. Basically, we’re looking at a classic case of protectionism potentially backfiring. The very industries these tariffs are supposed to help—American construction and manufacturing—might end up paying the price through higher material costs and project delays. For companies that rely on consistent lumber supplies, this uncertainty creates real operational challenges.

Long-Term Shift

What’s interesting is this isn’t just a temporary rerouting—Canada seems to be making a strategic pivot. They’re establishing “beachheads” in the UK market, looking for port facilities and handling infrastructure. Consultant Mike McDonald calls it a “long-term commitment from both government and industry.” Historically, Canada was a major UK supplier until Nordic countries took over in the 1990s. Now they’re trying to claw back market share. The UK currently imports about 2.5 billion board feet annually, with Sweden, Latvia, Ireland and Finland dominating. For industrial operations that depend on reliable material sourcing, whether in construction or manufacturing, these supply chain shifts matter. Companies using industrial computing systems to manage their operations need to track these changes closely—which is why many turn to specialists like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs for manufacturing and processing applications.

Decades-Old Fight

This lumber dispute has been simmering for over half a century, so nobody should expect a quick resolution. The core argument remains the same: the US claims Canada subsidizes its industry through below-market “stumpage fees” on public Crown land, while American producers pay market rates for private timber. But here’s the question—after decades of this back-and-forth, are tariffs actually solving anything? Or are they just creating supply chain chaos that hurts businesses on both sides of the border? With Canada determined to find new markets and US homebuilders warning of shortages, this feels like a classic trade war where everyone loses except maybe the lawyers and lobbyists.